Christmas Shopping Explained

Manchester saw record numbers in the city centre last weekend; visiting the Christmas markets, enjoying a mulled wine or a gingerbread latte and, of course, going shopping. A boost in retail sales was predicted by, amongst others, Deloitte who projected an increase in sales of 3.5% to £40 billion, this year.

Predicting a year on year increase at Christmas is a very safe bet. We always spend more than last year at Christmas. Even if we say we are not going to. Last year, according to a YouGov surveyconsumers in the lower socio economic grouping of C2DE said the would spend significantly less in 2012 than 2011….but their actual spend was higher.

Consumers’ intentions are not a very good predictor of their behaviour. Asked way before Christmas, when stories about redundancy and recession are rife, it is not surprising they prefer to project an image of caution. But in the lead up to Christmas, the retail sector works very hard to encourage people to part with their money, tempting us with seasonal product ranges and festive merchandising – in the four days before Christmas alone Verdict estimate over £12 billion will be spent this year.

Given the ever increasing commercialisation of Christmas it is not surprising we are getting better at being consumers. Last year Internet users started to search for the word ‘sales’ online around about 14 December. Economically savvy consumers have already pulled forward the January Sales to Boxing Day and now they expect heavy discounts before Christmas.

Last week, PricewaterhouseCoopers said that 72% of the high street already had a sale – with the average discount being 46%. Just because items are cheaper doesn’t mean that we spend less. Most Christmas shoppers have a predetermined idea of how much they will spend per person on their list. So, we get more gifts for our money, the retailers move more stock but profit margins are reduced.

The squeeze on profit margins may be felt even more strongly this year as more people shop on the Internet relying on ‘click and collect’ services. Whilst this is convenient to the customer it can be expensive for the retailer, especially the cost of dealing with returns. For example, John Lewis ‘click and collect’ customers have 5 different ways to return unwanted goods. So much more complexity for the retailer to manage than the old ‘returns’ counter – where the customer also met the transport costs incurred in bringing the item back.

With 1 in 5 gifts being bought on-line does this mean further bad news for the high street? According to Experian, there were 113 million visits to retail websites last Boxing Day. However, footfall data shows the same number of people still went to visit the shops on Boxing Day. For many people, including the half a million people that visited Manchester at the weekend, going to the shops is synonymous with Christmas. I predict I will still be saying that for many years yet.

Smart City Manchester

It’s a conference about Manchester. It’s not often I come to place rather than sector or discipline-based conferences. First up, Sir Richard Leese to welcome us.

He tells us the vision for Manchester – its no different to most of the others I see (and believe me, in my job I see a lot).

But here’s something different, we are not going to be big anymore – we are going to be smart. As an analogy, Manchester is going to compete in the world beer market as a micro brewery.

So what’s smart. Invest in people. Build their skills and pay them a living wage.

38% of the Greater Manchester Area are graduates (or higher or equivalent). Putting that in some context – it’s about 50% more than Birmingham.

But there’s to do, especially in technical education and early years. Council employees are getting the living wage, but lots of local people aren’t.

The second smart point is to be more autonomous. Less controlled by Central Government and more financially independent (less ‘handouts’).

Barbara Spicer, CE of Salford City Council then explained the governance structure and strategies of the Combined Authority (of all the councils that make up the city region).

They are unique – but are also, for anyone not in ‘the club’ they are complicated.

This leads into a question from me about how to communicate what the Combined Authority does so it can engage people into achieving the vision. After all, surely it’s our vision? I live and work in Manchester.

The answer? I have nothing to worry about – it is just a big public body. Hmmmm.

The rest of the conference looked at the various facets of making, maintenance and marketing of Manchester.

This conference is actually a very effective way to engage this group of delegates into place management in Manchester, or at least raise awareness of it.